Originally posted by kingdavidI think the biggest obstacle to such a breakout is the current fragmentation of the music market.
...If the Beatles were breaking out just about now, do you think they’d do as they did back then? I mean, the timing counts, right?...
Back then, AM radio (broadcasting in monaural), was just about the only mass outlet for music. Let that thought roll around in your head for a while. No stereo popular music stations. Any song that played for longer than 2 minutes was considered too long to air on AM. The FM stations that did have stereo signals, all played classical music. Back then, 'long-hair music' meant symphonies!! The AM stations were dominated by either Country music, or light Jazz and Big Band tunes.
Elvis and company came in through the side door at the country stations, while whitebread lounge-lizard copies like Pat Boone slithered into the light Jazz and Big Band scene. By the time The Beatles arrived, both of the older programming formats had made room for Rock'n'Roll. Country music had expanded its definition to embrace the resurgence of Folk, which became Modern Folk, which became Folk-Rock. The Jazz stations were brought into the Rock era by way of The Beat Generation.
A major sea-change in popular music was under way. Instead of mashing newly discovered music into a proven formula, record companies were actively seeking a lead on 'The Next Big Thing'. What was needed was a group of people who had the right combination of timing, drive, talent, business backing, and promotion. The Beatles.
As kingdavid suggests, there may well have been someone else to fill that role if The Beatles had disintigrated early. That almost happened twice, actually. A very early member, (named Dave Stone??) died of a brain tumour. Ringo Starkey was brought in, to replace Pete Best, over the objections of fans who rioted in the streets!
Today, even with the consolidation of The Biz, there are too many sources for music, and way too many genres, for any one band to have a dominant influence. If The Beatles were to appear now, the depth of their writing talent and their musicianship would definitely get some attention. Its impossible to say if they would achieve anything even resembling the kind of success they had.
In a simpler market, if Kurt had lived, and assuming that Nirvana had as much depth of talent as The Beatles, (by no means a sure thing), maybe Cobain et al would have had as much impact... but the market isn't simpler, there is not much evidence to suggest an equal depth of talent, and the band was unable to maintain its influence without its key member.
Enjoy the music. Anything past that is just 'what if'.
